The investor day was yesterday. A prediction scorecard:
Prediction #1: Expect a large portion of the event to talk about Star
Yes, it was a big part of their presentation, and they were very explicit on how Star (and Star+) would fit into their international strategy.
Prediction #2: Hulu’s future
You predicted that Hulu would be rolled into D+ You were wrong. Hulu is still a stand alone streamer in the U.S., and Disney appears to be aggressively creating and curating content for the service.
Prediction #3: Disney+ has more than 100 million subscribers
No. The global numbers are impressive but not 100m for the D+ service alone. The new guidance numbers for total subs in 2024 are a shocker, though.
Prediction #4: Half of Disney’s 2021 slate will become exclusive Premier Access simultaneous titles, others will go direct to Disney+
Absolutely not. You definitely read the wrong tea leaves on this one.
Prediction #5: ESPN is about to become way more streaming heavy
I don't think so. It looks like they are doubling down on their current strategy with a lot of news and documentary content. The SEC announcement was for ESPN in toto, with a more limited streaming component. Based on their revised guidance, I think ESPN+ remains more status quo in the coming years.
My worry about moving Hulu content over to Disney+ is that Hulu originals will get lost in the mix. I love several of Hulu’s shows and wouldn’t want to see those go away. I doubt The Handmaid’s Tale would continue as a Disney+ show, but I could be wrong.
I completely agree with you on 4/5 of your predictions, the only exception being Hulu. Now if anything I’d say the thing I’d expect is Disney really want to shake the boat is with ESPN, and they turn ESPN- into ESPN+ by bringing everything to the service at a guess of 12.99 pcm. Now seems like the time to do it and would probably do more for their share price than anything else. I get the Hulu argument but I have a few issues with it. One it over crowds the Disney+ experience - one of the better parts of using Disney+ is the simplicity, by adding Hulu’s huge library neither prosper as either Hulu’s gets lost in the mix or Disney’s does. Two it mutes Disney’s brand as family friendly regardless of how it’s implemented. Three what price do you charge? Disney+ is one of the cheaper options - so does Disney+Hulu cost 12.98 - the cost of ad Hulu and Disney plus or 18.98 the cost of ad free Hulu and Disney plus or somewhere in between? Looking at the ARPU of Hulu suggests they make more from the ad supported one but putting ads on Disney+ is a bad idea. Either way results in less money for Disney. Four the Disney bundle has huge benefits, and if Disney introduce a full ESPN for streaming then the bundle gets a shot in the arm if say the bundle is priced at around 15 only slightly higher than that of full ESPN. This gives Hulu a huge increase as does Disney +.
The investor day was yesterday. A prediction scorecard:
Prediction #1: Expect a large portion of the event to talk about Star
Yes, it was a big part of their presentation, and they were very explicit on how Star (and Star+) would fit into their international strategy.
Prediction #2: Hulu’s future
You predicted that Hulu would be rolled into D+ You were wrong. Hulu is still a stand alone streamer in the U.S., and Disney appears to be aggressively creating and curating content for the service.
Prediction #3: Disney+ has more than 100 million subscribers
No. The global numbers are impressive but not 100m for the D+ service alone. The new guidance numbers for total subs in 2024 are a shocker, though.
Prediction #4: Half of Disney’s 2021 slate will become exclusive Premier Access simultaneous titles, others will go direct to Disney+
Absolutely not. You definitely read the wrong tea leaves on this one.
Prediction #5: ESPN is about to become way more streaming heavy
I don't think so. It looks like they are doubling down on their current strategy with a lot of news and documentary content. The SEC announcement was for ESPN in toto, with a more limited streaming component. Based on their revised guidance, I think ESPN+ remains more status quo in the coming years.
This is outstanding work. Thank you for taking the time to write this.
I'm curious as to whether Disney will reveal how much they made with Mulan too...
My worry about moving Hulu content over to Disney+ is that Hulu originals will get lost in the mix. I love several of Hulu’s shows and wouldn’t want to see those go away. I doubt The Handmaid’s Tale would continue as a Disney+ show, but I could be wrong.
I completely agree with you on 4/5 of your predictions, the only exception being Hulu. Now if anything I’d say the thing I’d expect is Disney really want to shake the boat is with ESPN, and they turn ESPN- into ESPN+ by bringing everything to the service at a guess of 12.99 pcm. Now seems like the time to do it and would probably do more for their share price than anything else. I get the Hulu argument but I have a few issues with it. One it over crowds the Disney+ experience - one of the better parts of using Disney+ is the simplicity, by adding Hulu’s huge library neither prosper as either Hulu’s gets lost in the mix or Disney’s does. Two it mutes Disney’s brand as family friendly regardless of how it’s implemented. Three what price do you charge? Disney+ is one of the cheaper options - so does Disney+Hulu cost 12.98 - the cost of ad Hulu and Disney plus or 18.98 the cost of ad free Hulu and Disney plus or somewhere in between? Looking at the ARPU of Hulu suggests they make more from the ad supported one but putting ads on Disney+ is a bad idea. Either way results in less money for Disney. Four the Disney bundle has huge benefits, and if Disney introduce a full ESPN for streaming then the bundle gets a shot in the arm if say the bundle is priced at around 15 only slightly higher than that of full ESPN. This gives Hulu a huge increase as does Disney +.
I wonder if/when we'll see a league or even an individual NCAA conference make their own DTC play.
As a sports fan, I am very curious to see how things will play out with ESPN.