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Pike Bishop's avatar

The investor day was yesterday. A prediction scorecard:

Prediction #1: Expect a large portion of the event to talk about Star

Yes, it was a big part of their presentation, and they were very explicit on how Star (and Star+) would fit into their international strategy.

Prediction #2: Hulu’s future

You predicted that Hulu would be rolled into D+ You were wrong. Hulu is still a stand alone streamer in the U.S., and Disney appears to be aggressively creating and curating content for the service.

Prediction #3: Disney+ has more than 100 million subscribers

No. The global numbers are impressive but not 100m for the D+ service alone. The new guidance numbers for total subs in 2024 are a shocker, though.

Prediction #4: Half of Disney’s 2021 slate will become exclusive Premier Access simultaneous titles, others will go direct to Disney+

Absolutely not. You definitely read the wrong tea leaves on this one.

Prediction #5: ESPN is about to become way more streaming heavy

I don't think so. It looks like they are doubling down on their current strategy with a lot of news and documentary content. The SEC announcement was for ESPN in toto, with a more limited streaming component. Based on their revised guidance, I think ESPN+ remains more status quo in the coming years.

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Tony Lewis's avatar

This is outstanding work. Thank you for taking the time to write this.

I'm curious as to whether Disney will reveal how much they made with Mulan too...

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