What happens next?
No one knows.
I’ve been thinking about the film industry as an airport runway: the length of concrete a plane has before it’s forced to take off.
Six months ago, Disney and other studios were at the beginning of the runway. They’ve slowly been moving into position, releasing the few films that were completed and ready to go, evaluating how much distance they had before them. Now studios are nearing the runway’s end. Completed movies are running out. The moment where Disney and others must start production, the moment a plane hits the end of the runway and propels into the air, is quickly approaching. Even Netflix is telling analysts and investors that while they’re okay, their lineup of Originals is impacted if they can’t get back into production on bigger, live-action projects soon.
Therein lies the dilemma corporations like Disney are now about to regularly face: how do you move forward when COVID-19 cases around the world are growing and sets aren’t 100% safe? For entertainment companies, not having a slate of movies or TV shows isn’t just negatively impactful to their overall business, it’s potential ruin.
So, what happens next?
I’ve thought about this a lot over the last couple of days. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier is getting ready to finish reshoots so it can hopefully premiere on Disney+ this year. In other parts of the Marvel universe, production on Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is reportedly set to pick up in England in November, while Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is currently filming in Australia. Elsewhere in Disney, production on Avatar 2 is underway in New Zealand. The industry is trying to navigate returning to filming in cities like Los Angeles and Atlanta.
But the main reason I can’t stop thinking about what happens next is because of The Batman. Production on The Batman shut down earlier this week after star Robert Pattinson reportedly contracted COVID-19. Director Matt Reeves is supposedly working to fit in as much filming without Pattinson until the actor can return. Warner Bros. head Ann Sarnoff told a variety of publications that as the studio prepared for production on films to restart, certain contingency plans were put into place for this exact scenario.
“I think we never expected things to go completely smoothly,” Sarnoff told The Hollywood Reporter. “If someone tests positive, you do contact tracing, you pause, you evaluate, and come back when you can. I think it would have been naïve to think we wouldn’t have certain cases on certain productions. The most important thing is to be ready for when that happens. And we were very much ready.”
Whether or not the studios are ready is up for debate. The Batman set will likely remain closed for up to two weeks as people who were in contact with Pattinson quarantine. That’s got me thinking about Marvel Studios, which had to shut down production on Shang-Chi back in March after a director tested positive for coronavirus. Studios like Marvel and Warner Bros. don’t seem to be enacting strict bubbles like the NBA did to complete its season. And movies, like Shang-Chi, Doctor Strange, and The Batman, require actors, crew members, and others to be in relatively close contact in order to film. Much like basketball (and soon, football) actors are in each other’s physical spaces constantly — talking, fighting, kissing, yelling, or doing any of the thousand other things we watch them do on our screens.
The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers issued a white paper outlining measures to be taken on set as production starts up again. The paper goes through everything from proper hygiene maintenance to social distancing practices where possible to food handling, makeup, hair, and props. The idea is to make filming as safe as possible, but that doesn’t mean sets are entirely virus-free. Even the opening to the Alliance’s white paper starts by acknowledging that “the health and safety of the general public and all cast and crew is the highest priority,” before directly following it up with, “Re-opening the industry and returning to Guiding Principles work are also significant and important priorities.”
If “re-opening the industry,” even in the middle of a pandemic, is a “significant priority”, it’s especially true for a studio like Marvel. And it’s, to be totally transparent, where my runway thinking has been focused.
Unlike Disney live-action one-offs and the annual one or two Pixar movies, Marvel movies are sequential in nature. Whether loosely tied together, or directly linked to another title, they rely on one another. Spider-Man: Homecoming is more impactful because of scenes in Captain America: Civil War, and Tony Stark’s arc with Peter Parker works in Avengers: Infinity War because of Homecoming. The biggest emotional gut punches in Spider-Man: Far From Home are entirely tied to Avengers: Endgame. Black Panther is set up in Civil War, and Bruce Banner’s story in the final two Avengers movies only works because of Avengers: Age of Ultron and Thor: Ragnarok.
Marvel movies belong to a bigger universe that are reliant on one another; stopping production or delaying one film delays them all. The Marvel Cinematic Universe generated $22.5 billion for Disney, and that doesn’t even account for merchandise. The financial risks of not getting them out is obvious.
Moving around one Marvel title screws up the rest of the calendar — and that gets extra complicated when films are planned out years in advance. Then, add in Marvel Studios’ new Disney+ initiative, where elements of a show like WandaVision tie into Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Both WandaVision and Doctor Strange were set to debut in 2021, but dates were moved around; now WandaVision is due out at the end of this year, while Doctor Strange is moved to 2022. Even if interweaving plotlines and references aren’t overly affected, the original roll out intention takes a hit.
From a strictly logistical standpoint, Marvel has to kick into high gear. Its runway ran out. The plane has to get into the air. But as we’re seeing with The Batman, and as I can only assume we’ll see on other sets as more films head into production, that comes with a heavy cost. Logistics isn’t the only factor to take into account, and it’s far from the most important.
The question becomes what should happen next?
There’s no question that people’s lives are at stake, even on sets where extreme safety precautions are taking place. For studios like Marvel and Warner Bros., the question becomes how much can you physically do, while attempting to do it in the safest way possible (I want to reiterate that I 100% believe studios are taking any and every precaution necessary), but acknowledging there is no bulletproof way of working in conditions that require people to be up close and personal?
When I started this newsletter it was because I wanted a place to jot down longer thoughts about Disney’s strategy. From that perspective, I can look at films heading back into production and understand that movies are products for companies like Disney and companies need to get their products out to stay afloat. But we’re existing in a moment where it’s hard to give a damn about profits when people are getting sick and dying. That makes it harder to care about whether Marvel can stay on track or The Batman meets its October 2021 release date.
So I can sit here, and try to hammer out 1,500 words about how studios are approaching getting back into the swing of things to continue existing, acknowledging there are tens of thousands of people who work within the industry that want and need to get back to their jobs, whose livelihoods are also at risk by not working. I can acknowledge, selfishly as a consumer, that I’m stuck at home, desperate for new entertainment, and that can only happen if production starts. That’s the economic reality. But our reality also includes 27 million cases of coronavirus worldwide and 881,000 deaths at the time of this writing. Our reality is that cases are still growing in numerous countries — especially the United States. Our reality is we are nowhere close to this being over.
The title of this week’s essay is what happens next. That’s not a set up for an answer I have; it’s a question with no clear answer. Companies have run out of time to rely on what was previously stored, but the most effective way for people to prevent getting sick directly opposed what the studios need them to do.
Considering the focus of this newsletter, it’s a question that makes me think about the projects currently underway or about to begin. Crews resume work. In some cases, like The Batman, the virus impacts production. A person gets sick. Set shuts down for two weeks. Then, assumedly, everyone goes back and tries again, hoping for the best. And that’s, frankly, one of the better hypothetical scenarios. It can be much, much worse.
Is this — and I ask with no judgment because I do not know the answer, nor do I pretend to — what happens next? Until a vaccine is discovered, and is widely and easily distributed, I feel like it’s the looming question everybody will be asking day in and day out.
Studios
Mulan’s early box office numbers are in
The film grossed $6 million in nine different international territories, including Malaysia and Singapore, and Thailand. As Disney continues rolling out the film to other international markets, including Russia, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Slovenia, Kuwait, Ukraine, Poland, and China, the House of Mouse is hoping for more box office revenue — especially in China where the film will be released on September 11th. (Whether or not Disney comes out and says how many copies it sold via Premier Access remains unclear.) (The DisInsider)
New Mutants lands in trouble
The New Mutants had a better-than-expected first weekend, but in its second weekend of being in theaters, the film is seeing some big drop off — dropping nearly 75% in its second week. (IGN)
Enter Metallica
Metallica is teaming up with composer James Newton Howard to create an orchestral version of their song, “Nothing Else Matters” for Disney’s upcoming Jungle Cruise. (Collider)
An important John Boyega read
John Boyega sat down with GQ for an in-depth interview about his life and career, and spoke about how disappointed he was by Disney and Lucasfilm’s sidelining of his Star Wars character, Finn. The interview goes well beyond Boyega’s time on Star Wars, and is well worth the read. (GQ)
Streaming
Mulan becomes a teaching moment
Mulan producer Jason T. Reed talks about shifting the film to Disney+, and experiencing a “graduate school” like experience where “they’re re-writing the curriculum as you’re doing it.” (Forbes)
An SVOD bump
Hulu’s Greta Thunberg documentary, I Am Greta, will receive a limited theatrical release — including a premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival — beginning October 6th before it heads to Hulu on November 13th. (Variety)
Don’t want to pay for Mulan? Just wait
Disney confirmed this week that Mulan will be “free” to stream for all Disney+ subscribers beginning December 4th. But it appears that people will only be able to purchase Mulan up to November 2nd, according to Disney’s Premier Access FAQ. (The Verge)
Mark your calendars, Star Wars fans
The Mandalorian’s second season returns on October 30th. Not only does this give people something to do for Halloween, but it’s one of the first (non-$30) exciting new titles to hit Disney+ in months. (The Verge)
Parks
A crucial DisneyWorld report
A new, important investigation by The Daily Beast that alleges Disney is “covering up its COVID cases.” (The Daily Beast)
Look to Tokyo Disney for the future
All eyes are on Tokyo Disney as new measures being introduced to the park, including increased reduced hours and an “eTicket attraction” could have implications on Disneyland and potentially Disney World. (The OC Register)
A moment of utter cuteness
NBA Bubble update: Families are being reunited with players who are still stuck inside the bubble. It’s pretty dang cute. I’d be a poor Raptors fan if I didn’t plug this wholesome video of Fred VanVleet seeing his kids in person for the first time in months. (NBA Playoffs 2020)
Media Networks
Court is back in session
Fox (now Disney) and Netflix are back in court over an ongoing dispute related to executive poaching. This case stems back to 2016, with Fox accusing Netflix of unfair poaching practices and Netflix firing back against Fox’s “abusive behavior” in trying to prevent talent from leaving. (Deadline)
A ratingspalooza!
Ratings for NBA games, including those broadcast on ESPN, are down approximately 40% domestically compared to the 2018 season. But ratings are way, way up internationally, with NBA executives taking note. (Forbes)