Disney wants to fight the state of California over Disneyland. Disney is wrong.

A tradeoff that Governor Newsom isn't willing to make

Should Disneyland reopen?

It’s a question that’s led to public disagreements between California Governor Gavin Newsom and top Disney brass, including executive chairman Bob Iger who stepped down from Newsom’s economic recovery team after he refused to give Disneyland the go ahead. Current guidelines give Disneyland and other theme parks based in California (Universal Studios) the clear to reopen only when cases drop enough that California enters the least-restrictive yellow tier. Even then, they can only open at 25% capacity. It’s a number that Disneyland president Ken Potrock called “arbitrary guidelines that [the state of California] knows are unworkable.”

There are two basic arguments from each side. Newsom doesn’t want to risk a possible outbreak of COVID-19 cases at a time when Southern California and other parts of the country are seeing case numbers rise. Disney executives, alongside other theme park owners, argue they’ve proven theme parks can open safely in other states, criticizing Newsom for preventing people from working and putting in mandates that will hurt American businesses.

Both parties believe they’re right and, to an extent, both are. Since Disney World reopened in Florida in July, there have been no breakouts or increase in cases publicly tied to the park, according to the New York Times. Disney claims that any employees who tested positive caught it outside of park grounds. Mostly, Disney’s argument about reopening Disneyland comes from the fact that the rest of Disney’s parks have reopened. If it worked everywhere else, Disney’s executives have claimed, why not here?

That, however, is precisely the issue. Geography plays an enormous part in deciding what can reopen, what might reopen, and what must remain closed. If we focus just on the United States, California has seen an uptick including very recently. This is not to imply that cases are non-existent in other states like Florida; but numbers went from 11,800 new cases a day in mid-July to just under 3,000 new cases by early October, according to the New York Times. They’re now, however, beginning to climb again. Maybe Disney World will close once again, too.

While cases in Southern California, which include Orange County, dropped between mid-August and early October, those numbers are beginning to grow again. Deciding to open a theme park while cases are on the rise, in the middle of Southern California, isn’t something Newsom is willing to do.

“The bottom line is we are seeing an increase in the transmission rates of COVID-19 in the vast majority of states in this nation that should be alarming to all Americans,” Newsom told journalists at a press conference last week. “We’re seeing around the world increased case rates, some very notably in countries that tended to experience increased rates at the beginning of this pandemic about a month or so before we experienced them here in the United States.”

Outside of the United States, we’re seeing similar actions being taken. Disneyland Paris shut down again on Thursday in accordance with new government mandates as France goes into lockdown. Like Newsom, French President Macron is trying to get ahead of rising case counts by shutting down the country’s non-essential businesses until at least December 1st. Disneyland Paris is hoping to reopen for the holiday season, between December 19th and January 4th, and will then shut down again until mid-February. Similar to Disney World in Orlando, Tokyo Disney, and Shanghai Disney, Disneyland Paris opened in the summer and was mostly operating fine under limited capacity rules — until now. Until the virus reminded governments and businesses it doesn’t care about people’s plans or the economy — it exists to infect and only infect.

It’s harder to be sympathetic to Disney’s plights, but the company’s stance is understandable. Disneyland brought in an estimated $3.2 billion in revenue for the company in 2019, and was supposed to be home to the long awaited Avengers Campus this year. Parks as a whole represent billions upon billions of Disney’s overall revenue. It’s not peanuts. That sizable loss is even more noticeable when theaters are closed and the extra billions Disney would make on its films suddenly disappears. Advertising spending is beginning to come back up, but Disney’s media networks are facing a lackluster fall television season and cable TV continues to drop.

Then there are aspects of Disney’s business that are easier to empathize with. Disney has laid off tens of thousands of employees in recent months, most recently letting go of 28,000 employees. Most belonged to Disney World and Disneyland in the United States, with some jobs in Disney Cruise and Retail sectors also impacted. Some of those who have jobs are terrified of contracting COVID-19, with Parks employees telling reporters (including myself) that Disney’s communication is lackluster. For many it’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t; for those who are laid off, it’s a matter of being able to put food on the table.

“These guidelines fail working families and small businesses,” Anaheim Mayor Harri Sidhu said in a statement. “As painful as this is, Disney and the city of Anaheim will not survive.”

I can’t get over how especially American the specific fight over Disneyland feels. Disney’s fight with the state of California over opening Disneyland, the very first theme park that Walt Disney opened in July 1955, in a state that plays home to the idea of the American dream. A literal fight with the state of California about opening one of the happiest places on Earth at a time when California is recording significant spikes in cases, led by a company fondly referred to by its fans as the House of Mouse.

A debate that, even with all of its intricacies and despite the vast oversimplification of these next few words, comes down to a fight over whether people live or die in the name of restarting the economy.

Again, that is a vast oversimplification of an equation that people much smarter than I have tried to solve, day in and day out, since the pandemic hit the United States’ shores. As Emily Bazelon wrote in the New York Times back in April, “it’s important to acknowledge that a trade-off will emerge” and eventually “there will be difficult compromises between doing everything possible to save lives from Covid-19 and preventing other life-threatening, or -altering, harms.”

Disney is about to go into its fourth quarter earnings with analysts and investors. Aside from expected continued growth in its streaming division (a trend that led to the major reorganization we talked about last week), Disney is still likely to report major losses in two of its biggest divisions — Parks and Studios. I’m sure executives would have loved to boast about Disneyland opening to try and soothe concerns, even if Disney World’s reopening hasn’t shaped up the way executives hoped. A reopened Disneyland — the park that started it all, a big part of why Disney executives are gathered around a virtual table today — would do wonders for morale, I’m sure.

Obviously, Disney executives don’t want people to die from visiting their parks. They don’t want people in Arkansas to die because someone they knew visited Disneyland, caught COVID-19, went home asymptomatic, and then passed it along. No one at Disney is ignorant to what is happening in the world. But it’s foolish to think that just because something is working in Paris or Tokyo, that same logic can be applied to everywhere else in the world. It’s not that simple. It’s dangerous to pretend otherwise.

At one point in August, coronavirus cases in Tokyo fell to 94. In that same period, cases in Paris hovered between 2,000 and 6,000. In California, cases hit close to 12,000 in August, while Orlando hovered between 2,000 and 9,000. Those numbers on their own might not say much, but it shows how the idea of taking an approach that worked in one city with far different case numbers and applying it to every other city doesn’t work. That’s especially true in the United States where a significant group of people have declared a war on masks, and the current government has done seemingly everything in its power to screw things up even more.

Should Disneyland reopen? It’s a difficult question to stomach, but it’s not a hard one. No. Not right now. Not until cases stop rising at concerning levels every single day in Southern California. Questions about whether Disney World will also close again are starting to spring up as cases in Florida, including Orlando, skyrocket.

The reality is that while other governments around the world acted quickly and properly to try and fight the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States’ federal government, and some state governments, have made the situation in America worse. They made it worse through poor leadership and negligent decisions. Choosing not to open Disneyland right now, and possibly shut down Disney World, is a step in the right direction, even when that statement comes with terrifying financial uncertainty for a company already facing devastating financial uncertainties. A tradeoff will have to happen at some point; Disneyland can’t stay closed forever. The fact remains that now isn’t the time to reopen.

Studios

• An incredible interview with Disney legend, Glen Keane

  • Bilge Ebiri has a phenomenal long interview with Disney legend and artist extraordinaire, Glen Keane. The two talk about Keane’s hang up on Treasure Planet, a movie that didn’t receive the credit it deserved at the time, what happened with Tangled, and moving into a directing role with Netflix’s Over The Moon. It’s a beautiful and frank discussion well worth your time. (Vulture)

• Will we see more Jyn Erso?

  • It is an undeniable, objective truth that Rogue One is one of the best Star Wars movies ever made. Felicity Jones, who played the reluctant leader Jyn Erso in the film, recently sat down with The Hollywood Reporter to talk about whether she thinks Jyn could return to the Star Wars universe in the future.

  • “I just keep saying that reincarnation is totally possible in the Star Wars universe. (Laughs). So, I feel there’s unfinished business for Jyn, for sure. I think it would be fascinating to see her getting older and wiser and fighting the dark forces in the universe, of which there are many it seems.” (The Hollywood Reporter)

• Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh give a small update on Black Widow

  • Black Widow was supposed to come out in May, and then again in November, and now it’s not coming out until next Spring. Scarlett Johansson told Marie Claire that while they want to get the movie out as soon as possible, it’s just not going to happen until people can feel comfortable and safe going back to theaters.

  • Both actors also spoke about the importance of having women in starring superhero roles, especially as the genre matures. (Marie Claire)

Streaming

• The Mandalorian is back! What did you think?

  • I realized I’m doing a poor job of fostering any kind of discussion. So this week, I want to know — what did you think of The Mandalorian? Let’s keep it spoiler free if possible, but my hot take is The Mandalorian shouldn’t be longer than 30 minutes because The Mandalorian is in essence a Saturday morning cartoon at its core. Also, I could have used some more Baby Yoda. But I could always use some more Baby Yoda.

  • If you’re looking for some more reading material, here’s me over at Verge talking about what happens after Mandalorian. (The Verge)

• Oscar Isaac will lace up for Moon Knight

  • Moon Knight is one of my most anticipated Marvel Studios series happening on Disney+, and the news was only made sweeter by the news that Oscar Isaac will be playing the titular role. The show follows a character named Mark Spector, who finds himself splintered into different personalities, all of whom come together to form the vigilante, Moon Knight. No word on when to expect Moon Knight, but hopefully we’ll have updates on plenty of Marvel Studios projects soon. (Deadline)

• Disney+ will let you share things to social media, but not the way you’re thinking

  • Disney has a new product update that will let people share what they’re watching to social media sites and through texting platforms like iMessage.

  • Essentially, Disney will let people tap a button that sends out a link to the Disney+ landing page of what they’re currently viewing.

  • This is different from my constant suggestion which is allowing people to actually share selected moments to social media platforms directly via the Disney+ app on mobile and desktop. It’s easy earned media to highlight the cute Baby Yoda moments or funny Mando moments that people will want to GIF and share, and do that for them. Keep them short, keep control of what can be shared, but you’re losing out on not letting people actively share parts of what they’re seeing. (Variety)

Parks

• Elizabeth Warren demands to see the receipts

  • Senator Warren is coming for Disney executives, demanding to know how “it was simply unfeasible to keep paying workers yet had no explanation for how it was feasible to restore senior executive pay,” according to CNN.

  • Disney has laid off tens of thousands of employees, mostly in the Parks sector at Disney World and Disneyland. Disney World has seen lower than anticipated attendance, even with new metrics put in place for a restricted reopening, and Disneyland isn’t open.

  • Disney CEO Bob Chapek responded to the letter by saying Warren’s accusations against the company were “ill-considered and misleading.” (CNN)

• Disney Cruises could potentially sail again soon

  • The CDC released a new order last week called “Framework for Conditional Sailing.” As part of the order, there are a number of outlines that companies — like Disney — can take to try and meet in order to set sail from US ports again.

  • The no-sail order ended on October 31st, but there are a number of steps that companies need to take before they can set sail. They’ll have to work closely with the CDC to ensure that passengers are taking consistent tests to prove they’re not carrying COVID-19.

  • Whether or not this means that Disney’s cruise ships will set sail by the end of the year is unclear. My suggestion? Don’t get on a cruise ship anytime soon. Please. (Orlando Sentinel)

Media Networks

• Hulu + Live TV is losing a bunch of regional sports networks

  • I do love the smell of a good carriage dispute in the morning! For anyone who uses vMPVDs (virtual TV services like Hulu + Live TV, FuboTV, YouTube TV, Sling), you may have already encountered this once or twice: a bunch of Fox owned regional sports stations are suddenly no longer available because of disputes between the carrier (Hulu + Live TV) and the content provider (Sinclair Broadcasting).

  • The new dispute is just the latest between Disney and Sinclair. When Disney purchased 21st Century Fox in 2019, the government forced the company to divest of the regional sports networks, so Disney sold them to Sinclair. Since then, the two have gone back and forth on carrying the networks. I would argue it’s not a major loss on Disney’s part...

  • A full list of what’s leaving and when can be found on Variety. (Variety)